| 2009-10 Season Preview: Chicago Bulls Authored by Andrew Perna - October 13, 2009 - 2:54 pm
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Last Season’s FIC Rank: -0.8, 17th
Key Additions: Jannero Pargo
Key Subtractions: Ben Gordon and Tim Thomas
Key Rookies: James Johnson and Taj Gibson
Probable Starters: Derrick Rose, John Salmons, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, Brad Miller
Point Guard: The Bulls have great depth at point guard with Derrick Rose and Kirk Hinrich, who will probably be mentioned in trade rumors for the remainder of his time in Chicago. Rose is unquestionably the team’s present and future at the position, and Hinrich saw a significant reduction in both his time and production last season.
Rose has an incredible blend of size and speed. On any given night, Rose can use either his superior quickness or size against inferior opponents. He sees the court well and can attack the basket with relative ease, but there are improvements that need to be made. He’d be much tougher to defend if he could develop a more reliable jumper. Rose shot 47.5% from the floor in his rookie season, but more than 40% of his attempts came from close range.
He won the NBA’s Rookie of the Year award after posting 16.8 points and 6.3 assists per game, while assisting on 28.8% of Chicago’s baskets. He needs to take fewer chances, but showed in the postseason that he’s absolutely for real. On the grand stage for the first time, he averaged 19.7 points, 6.4 assists and 6.3 rebounds as the Bulls came within one win of shocking the then-defending champion Celtics.
As traditional, back-to-the-basket centers become extinct, point guards are on the rise. Every team is looking for their own Chris Paul, Deron Williams or Steve Nash and the Bulls have certainly found their franchise cornerstone. If he can reduce his turnovers, his on/off court numbers will improve.
Hinrich provides coach Vinny Del Negro with an intriguing option off the bench. He started just four games for the Bulls in a season that was limited by injury, but gave the club a significant punch off the bench. At this point, he’s a better shooter and defender than Rose, but the latter has the potential and time to approach Hinrich in both of those categories. He has the better basketball IQ as well and can also play beside him as the off guard.
After the Bulls took him with the 7th overall pick in the 2003 draft, many felt as though Hinrich had the potential to be one of the NBA’s best guards. Entering his seventh season, he’s a very solid starter but isn’t quite the player some saw coming out of Kansas. It might not be wise to do so this season, but with three years left on his contract, Chicago could turn Hinrich into the established power forward they have long coveted.
With that said, Jannero Pargo may be able to slide in as Rose’s backup if the sophomore progresses and remains healthy this season, making Hinrich more than expendable.
Swingmen: The Bulls lost Ben Gordon to free agency, which was practically a foregone conclusion heading into the offseason, but they are in capable hands with John Salmons. Many see him as a jack of all trades, but he’s actually a very good shooter. He’ll make just a tad more than half of what Gordon will in Detroit, but he’s the more complete player.
Mainly a jump shooter, 73% of his shot attempts last season came in that form, Salmons has much better size than Gordon. Because of his frame, 6’6” and 207 pounds, Del Negro can slide him over to small forward when needed (perhaps putting Hinrich at the two). Playing on an average team, Salmons had a net points per 100 possessions of +2.0.
Chicago doesn’t have a solid option behind Salmons, as Luol Deng and even Derrick Byars are much better suited for a forward role. I’d expect Salmons to play a majority of his minutes at shooting guard, simply because of Chicago’s needs.
Deng will be the key to the team’s success this season as he works back into the fold following a serious leg injury. The Bulls are rightly easing him back into the grind. It’s much more important that he’s at full speed and healthy in the second half of the season than close to 100%, but also susceptible to re-injury, this fall.
He isn’t a good three-point shooter by any stretch of the imagination. He’s taken just 49 shots from beyond the arc in the last three seasons after chucking 195 attempts in his first two years. However, Deng can do nearly everything else on the court. The former Dukie can score, pass, rebound, handle the ball and defend. He has a long wingspan and will be in Chicago for the long haul.
The Bulls signed Deng to a six-year contract, which guarantees him at least $71 million, last summer. If he’s limited by injury and doesn’t take any steps forward in the next year or two, the pact might not be thought of in a positive light, but he’s too talented and smart to be a grossly ineffective player.
Frontcourt: The frontcourt is the most intriguing aspect of Chicago’s roster. They have the pieces to be above average in the paint, but those pieces haven’t all fallen into place just yet.
Joakim Noah has become just the kind of NBA player we expected. He hustles, leaves it all out on the floor and fights for rebounds, but his offensive game is nearly nonexistent. He’s a perfect complementary post player, but the problem is that the Bulls haven’t unearthed a reliable one of those yet.
Tyrus Thomas is entering a pivotal season, and he knows it. His third season was his best, but 10.8 points and 6.5 rebounds isn’t enough production out off a former fourth overall pick. He claims that this season will be about silencing his critics, and if he accomplishes that, the Bulls could make some noise in the Eastern Conference. He can jump out of the gym and block shots (1.9 per game), but often goes for the eye-popping defensive play rather than using his athleticism to defend for a full possession.
His offensive game needs work, but it’s better than Noah’s and if he can channel some of his aggressiveness and energy into outmaneuvering opposing players in the paint he’d be much more effective. His shot should be addressed soon, because 55% of his attempts last season were jumpers.
Aside from Thomas and Noah, the Bulls have veteran center Brad Miller and a host of unproven options. Miller is still underrated even though he’s not the player he was just a few seasons ago. He’s not an above-average rebounder, but brings something this team desperately needs from its frontcourt -- scoring ability. His long arms allow him to take shots over reaching defenders in the paint. He can hit a mid-range and turnaround jumper and also has the range to step out a hit a three.
His ability to drag defenders out of the paint, whether it’s to the elbow or all the way back to the perimeter, could help Thomas hone his offensive game one-on-one more often.
Chicago also has Aaron Gray, Jerome James and rookies James Johnson and Taj Gibson.
Johnson has the body to become one of the team’s post anchors for the foreseeable future, but as Chris Reina expertly pointed out in his pre-draft prospect report, he needs to refrain from trying to become an oversized swingman. The progression of Thomas along with the ability of Johnson to successfully adapt to the NBA game will indicate whether or not the Bulls can leverage Miller’s huge expiring contract into midseason help.
Forecast: The Bulls are among a handful of teams in the East that will get their hands dirty in the battle for seeds four through eight come playoff time. My forecasts have been very similar while going through the East, but I can honestly see Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Miami, Philadelphia, Toronto and Washington finishing within mere games of each other this spring. Unfortunately, two of those clubs will have difficult pills to swallow as there are only five playoff slots left after Boston, Orlando and Cleveland. The high/low win total for the Bulls is 48/38, with the latter number an utter low-ball if Deng gets back to 100%.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com. You can also follow Andrew on Twitter: APerna7. |
