| Unscram-bull-ing Chicago’s Off-Season Authored by Brent Diggins - May 23, 2007 - 8:01 pm
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Spending and Salary Cap Overview: Everything that the Bulls will do revolves around their salary cap and spending concerns. It must be said, that the Bulls don’t have the spending power that the Knicks, Mavericks and Lakers do, but are like a majority of teams laying in that 60-70 million dollar range so keep that in mind.
They currently have $46.7 million locked into next year’s salaries, with Michael Sweetney owning a qualifying offer of $3.6 million. Don’t expect them to pick up Sweetney’s contract, a player they have not been high on during his tenure. That will leave them approximately $11 million on the seven remaining open roster spots if they want to come in under the salary cap. The decision of whether to come in under the salary cap for next year is a major decision as they surely won’t enjoy that luxury once they have to resign their marquee free agents next off-season. If they do decide to go over, they will likely ring in around $65-70 million. It would be completely shocking, and unprecedented in Bulls’ history, to see them pursue a major free agent that would bring their payroll over $80 million.
The Front Line: Every basketball aficionado can tell you that the Bulls need to improve their front line. They have little low post offense and are undersized. With P.J. Brown, Andres Nocioni, Malik Allen, Martians Andriuskevicius (yeah, him) and Michael Sweetney entering free agency, they are currently left with only Ben Wallace and Tyrus Thomas, neither of whom are low post scoring threats.
Andres Nocioni and P.J. Brown: To bolster that front line, the Bulls would love to have Brown, if he decides not to retire, and Nocioni back, but only if the price is right. Brown made $8 million last year, and judging by his playoff performance, you can expect teams to throw $4-5 million his way for a one year or two year contract, which is in the Bulls range. However, if Brown is looking for a ring, he might go to a team with better chances and take less money. If, they lose him, he is fairly replaceable.
On the other hand, Nocioni could command anywhere from $6-9 million a year as he is gritty, versatile and can score and play defense, something any team would love, but especially teams looking to push for a ring. If he does get over $7 million a year from any team, the Bulls would have a very tough decision, and would probably have to let him go.
Free Agency: So clearly, the Bulls need to find some size. One way is through free agency. Look for the Bulls to pursue the likes of Melvin Ely, Corliss Williamson, Dale Davis, Marc Jackson, Kelvin Cato and Joe Smith. All of these players could be gotten on the cheap as they are largely in the back end of their careers or have underperformed. Players like Williamson and Smith can even net you ten plus points a game.
The Draft: Another way to address their size need is through the draft. It would be shocking, assuming they don’t make a trade, if the Bulls didn’t draft size in this size-heavy draft. With Hibbert pulling out of the draft, it tightens things up a bit, but at the nine slot they can definitely get some talent. Depending how players’ stocks rise and fall, no-brainers would be Joakim Noah or Al Horford, but most don’t expect them to drop to the ninth pick. Don’t be surprised to see Paxson stick to his M.O. of drafting hard workers from good programs and taking Josh McRoberts. Another option is drafting project players like Spencer Hawes or Yi Jianlian, but Paxson isn’t known to take those chances. He likes players who can come out, work hard and immediately contribute.
Trades: The last, and most difficult way to get pieces is through a trade, most likely involving Ben Gordon or a sign and trade with Nocioni. Gordon will command around $10 million dollars a year next year, and the Bulls have to determine this off-season whether they are willing to match that. If they aren’t going to match that price it is in their best interest to trade him and fill a need before they lose him and get nothing in return. If they don’t trade him this off-season it would be a PR/management nightmare and would hurt the team to peddle him during the regular season. So what can they get for either of those guys? Probably less in true value, but it would be better than nothing.
While trades are hard to gauge, you have to look at teams with an abundance of size. Jeffries or Frye from the Knicks? Brezec, Hermann or May from the Bobcats? Collison from the Supersonics? All of these teams could use either a Nocioni or Gordon. If the Bulls get one of these players and a draft pick or two, it would be hard to frown on the Bulls’ decision.
Or Paxson and Bulls can just go for it all. Would Minnesota take a sign and trade with Nocioni, Gordon and a draft pick for Garnett? The Bulls would immediately address their inside size and scoring problems and would be an immediate NBA Finals contender. This is a long shot, but not out of possibility. They could also go for Zach Randolph, but one must question if the Bulls are willing or can spend that kind of money for a notoriously lazy player that won’t fit into a Skiles/Paxson mentality.
Ben Gordon: Mark these words, “Kirk Hinrich’s contract is going to hurt the Bulls.” And here’s why. Kirk Hinrich is scheduled to make $11 million this year and $10 million next year, and he’s not worth that type of money. Both Gordon and Deng are free agents after next season. Their agents are going to say, “If Hinrich is making $11 million, my client deserves at least that much.” The agents will take this to other teams who will undoubtedly offer Gordon and Deng contracts of $10 million a year, perhaps as high as $12-15 million for Deng depending on his 2007-08 season.
With Ben Wallace on the books for $14.5 and Hinrich for $9.5, and Deng a must-sign at almost any price, Gordon is the odd man out next season. Can or are the Bulls willing to spend $10 million for Gordon? He is undersized and can be very streaky, and he has suspect defense, especially against bigger twos.
On the other hand, 20+ ppg scorers don’t grow on trees, and the Bulls would be hard pressed to score if they were playing without Ben Gordon. Gordon has been clutch and a key in their success. He is well-liked in Chicago and fits into the blue-collar attitude.
What Should the Bulls Do? There is one answer, something the Bulls have explored in the past. They need to trade Ben Gordon or sign and trade Andres Nocioni this off-season for quality size. If they trade one of them and are able to land a Nick Collison or another young low-post scorer that is good, but if they can trade BOTH and get Garnett, they would be poised for a title. Either scenario would also free them up to draft a wing like Corey Brewer, Julian Wright or Brandon Rush. Add in another outside shooter, like Matt Carroll and a couple veteran bigs, and all would be well in the Windy City. If they choose to keep both Gordon and Nocioni this season, they will have too many questions, too small of a pocketbook and perhaps lesser trade value going into next off-season. This off-season, while the players’ values are high, is the time to make a major trade.
What Will the Bulls Do? Paxson will probably keep the Deng, Gordon and Hinrich core intact. What will all this lead to? Unfortunately for Bulls fans, the absence of inside scoring coupled with a likely Nocioni departure will leave the Bulls sliding backwards instead of moving forward.
Brent Diggins is a freelance writer, and avid NBA fan, and the President of Diggs Communications, a Phoenix based marketing firm. You can reach him at brentd@diggspr.com. |
