| How Will Kobe Play In His 30's Authored by Christopher Reina - October 17, 2007 - 5:48 pm
Kobe Bryant now realizes that he is in the second half of his career and is attempting to put an end to a frustrating second act (Shaq-less Lakers) and hoping to begin a third act (playing for an Eastern Conference team) that will allow him to become relevant again in all Larry O’Brien discussions.
Bryant is 29 and approximately the same age, Michael Jordan averaged 32.6 points per game and the Chicago Bulls won their third consecutive championship (1992-1993 season).
(This is only a Michael vs. Kobe article in the sense of projecting Kobe’s career as he enters his 30’s in relation to work ethic and desire)
Jordan retired a few months after the Bulls’ Finals victory over the Phoenix Suns and eventually ended up in Double-A baseball.
But when he returned, Jordan never played as many minutes per game, nor scored as many points per game as he did in that season when he was 29. But he did lead the scoring in each of his three full remaining (non-Wizard) seasons. And he did win three more championships. So while not as blatantly dominant, Jordan's 30's were hugely successful.
When more typical Hall of Fame shooting guards typically decline, it begins at 30, as evidenced by these four Hall of Famers:
Player, Age: PPG
Oscar Robertson, 29: 29.2
Oscar Robertson, 30: 24.7
George Gervin, 29: 32.3
George Gervin, 30: 26.2
Clyde Drexler, 29: 25.0
Clyde Drexler, 30: 19.9
Rick Barry, 30: 30.6
Rick Barry, 31: 21.0
In the past, Bryant even has agreed with the notion that a basketball player’s prime ends around 30.
"People want to compare me with Michael (Jordan) in his prime and that's unfair,” said Bryant in 2003. “I don't think I'm in my prime yet. I think a player's prime is, like, 26 to 30. I'm only 24.”
There are two principal questions any GM considering trading for a 29 or 30-year-old Kobe Bryant must answer:
- How much longer can Bryant truly be the best player in the NBA?
- When he is no longer the best player in the NBA (due to declining physical ability), how good will he be?
The second question is relatively easy to answer, because a Kobe in his early 30’s will most likely resemble a mid 20’s Paul Pierce. Kobe would essentially be Pierce if he suddenly was stripped of his superior athletic ability and simply be a pure basketball player.
The first question is where we must compare Bryant to Jordan, because Jordan’s prime extended to the age of 35 (and possibly would have been 36 or 37 had he not retired a second time).
Jordan craved winning for the sake of winning, but Bryant’s motivations are more complex. I believe Bryant wants to win because he is fully cognizant that, fair or not, individual legacies of greatness are tied to winning championships. He isn't a selfish player, but because he has endlessly been compared to other people (his father while he was growing up and then Jordan when he entered the NBA), standing alone has a special important to him.
Bryant showcased much of his work ethic over the summer by his presence at non-mandatory USA practices in Las Vegas, with rookies Kevin Durant and Jeff Green being his only company.
"He works out on his own in the morning, at night. It's pretty impressive," said Mike D'Antoni, who is a USA Basketball assistant. "He's really focused, always. It just kind of carries over."
At 30, Jordan began to smoke cigars while sitting in traffic on his way to all home games.
“We had to be to the stadium at 6 o'clock for home games, and traffic was so bad it would take us an hour and 15 or and hour and 30 minutes to drive,” said Jordan to ‘Cigar Aficionado.’ “So now I'm sitting in a car for almost an hour and a half, and I'm very tense. I'm worried about the traffic. So I started smoking a cigar going to the games. In 1993, it became a ritual for every home game.”
Throughout his career, Jordan’s pregame meal was frequently steak and potatoes.
Conversely, Bryant no longer eats fast food and mainly eats fish and vegetables.
"You start knocking on 30, the reality sets in a little bit,” said Bryant in August. “Your metabolism isn't what it used to be. It's a part of trying to figure out how do you stay in tip-top condition or stay ready to play. If that means not eating fast food all the time, that's what you've got to do."
Diet is one aspect of an athlete’s life that has become increasingly sophisticated since the early 90’s and is part of the regimen as much as pure physical conditioning.
Bryant lost 15-20 pounds during the summer with having 20's explosiveness into his 30's in mind.
Jordan was largely able to defy normal basketball aging despite staying up late and partying on a regular basis, even during the season. Even during the playoffs.
“I knew one thing I didn't want was a job,” said Jordan in a 1992 interview about his mindset when he was growing up. “Me and working were never best friends. I enjoyed playing.”
Jordan drifted to basketball because of his glaring athleticism and a drive to compete. He of course worked extremely hard to improve, a work ethic instilled in him by hard-working parents, but this motivation to work came from wanting to win, as much as it was to be the best.
"I wasn’t really a work conscious type of person,” Jordan echoed again in a 60 Minutes interview in 2005. “I was a player. I loved to play sports. And in their wildest dreams, they never thought that I would be a professional athlete."
He would compete as passionately on the golf course with Richard Esquinas (who Jordan allegedly lost approximately $1 million in bets to) or at a blackjack table with Ron Harper as he would on the basketball court against Isiah Thomas or Larry Bird.
“For a competitive junkie like me, golf is a great solution because it smacks you in the face every time you think you have accomplished something,” said Jordan. “That to me has taken over a lot of the energy and competitiveness for basketball.”
Bryant, on the other hand, began telling people when he was a toddler that he would become a truly great basketball player. As much as Tiger Woods was strictly raised to be a golfer, Bryant was raised to be a basketball player.
Neither Woods nor Bryant would currently be the unquestioned best player in their respective sport had they not fully embraced the desire to be great and continuously execute that desire through a tireless work ethic.
"I just want to see what I'm capable of,” said Bryant in 2000. “That's what drives me more than anything: curiosity."
Jordan could be away from the game for a season and a half and play 40 minutes a night and score 30 points per game.
I’m not sure Bryant could do that and this is probably why surpassing Jordan, or even being in the discussion is futile. But he still could be as good in his 30’s, probably as good especially in his 30’s, as Jordan was. He could even accomplish more because as an athlete ages, work ethic matters more.
"They're not saying (when they compare Kobe to Michael), 'Kobe worked really hard at getting better at this.' Or, 'This is what I appreciate about Kobe,'" said Bryant in 2003. "It's always what I do in relation to Michael. Like, they say my competitiveness came from watching Michael. It never crossed their minds that I've been like this since I was five."
Bryant’s fixation on the Bulls as his preferred destination has as much to do with the presence of the Michael Jordan statue outside the United Center as it does with a promising group of complementary players inside of it.
Like Barry Bonds feeling he had to wear a Giants’ uniform to at least partially eclipse Willie Mays, Bryant realizes that not only must he win championships but he also has to do it in a place that matters and in a place that also housed the best. Obviously, being a member of the Los Angeles Lakers affords the opportunity to play for a storied franchise, but the urgency he feels is not felt by an ownership who will still be selling tickets to Hollywood long after Bryant is retired.
Jerry Reinsdorf bought the Bulls for $9.2 million and inherited Jordan along with it. Earlier this year, Forbes’ valuation of the team put them 4th in the NBA at $461 million.
The Bulls appear to be gun shy about the prospects of trading for Bryant because of a reluctance to breakup a competitive, affordable, but ultimately bland core. A team that looks more like those Cavaliers teams of the late-80’s and early-90’s that lost consistently to the Bulls.
Bryant is the closest thing to Jordan outside of Lee Kealon and is a 'win at any cost' type of person. If the Bulls don't let Bryant fall into their hands, they will have proven that they don't share his 'win at any cost' mentality and he should look to offer his very promising 30's elsewhere. |
