| Auditing The Bulls, 2007-08 Season Authored by Christopher Reina - May 5, 2008 - 7:41 pm
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Chicago won 33 games this season, but Pythagorean had them only winning 30, so they actually overachieved in the win/loss column. They were 20th in FIC differential (-4.6 per game), but they were a -13.9 from 06-07, which was third worst behind Miami and the Clippers.
Individually, the Bulls had the lowest top player in all of the NBA with Kirk Hinrich ranked 99th. The next worst team were the Heat as Dwyane Wade was ranked 88th.
Player: Overall Rank, Season FIC, Per 40 FIC, Reina Value
- Kirk Hinrich: 99th, 691, 11.7, -43%
Hinrich was the 37th most productive player in the NBA a season ago when he played in 80 games and a per 40 FIC of 13.1 but took a step backwards in the first season of his five-year, $47.5 million contract. But the deal is fortunately front-loaded, and the $11.25 million he made this season will drop in each of the next four years.
Jumpers were too frequently contested, and Hinrich found his way into the lane less often. His field goal percentage dropped from 44.8% to 41.4%, and his 3-point percentage dropped from 41.5% to an unencouraging 35.0%. Hinrich's 2.9 assist to turnover rate was a career high, but his often touted defensive play was less effective than it had been in the past.
- Luol Deng: 100th, 689, 13.0, +90%
Deng's stock was at an all-time high heading into the 07-08 season when Kobe Bryant tried to trade himself to Chicago primarily to play with the Duke product. Whether it was the preseason contract negotiations, the Kobe trade talks, or merely injuries, Deng wasn't the same player he was in 06-07 when he was the NBA's 16th best player. His per 40 FIC dropped from 14.0 to 13.0, and he played in 19 fewer games.
His elevation as a fringe All-Star last season and especially during the playoffs made Deng the top priority of opposing coaching staff on offense, and his lack of pure one-on-one moves drained his FG% down to 47.9 from 51.7. Because Deng is so versatile (he even improved by 22% as a 3-point shooter), he is a great second scoring option but is limited as a team's primary scorer.
The Bulls were expecting Deng to become a perennial All-Star starting this season, and it will be interesting to see if it was an injury issue or a ceiling-reached one. Either way, committing to Deng at an annual rate of $12-$13 million will be a safe bet and one they have no choice but taking.
It's impossible to forget the Bulls acquired Deng in exchange for Jackson Vroman, the first round pick that became Nate Robinson and cash.
- Drew Gooden: 109th, 635, 12.0, -9%
Gooden had a 13.6 per 40 FIC and was the 67th most productive player a season ago but became non-essential for Cleveland. When he came over to Chicago, Gooden improved in virtually every statistical category, most importantly as a shot-blocker and on the offensive glass.
He is entering the final season of an affordable contract where he is set to make $7.15 million and will be an attractive trade asset if they don't see a future for Gooden in Chicago.
- Ben Gordon: 110th, 634, 11.1, +19%
Like almost everyone else on the Bulls, Gordon's field goal percentage dropped this season as the team had to work quite hard to get open (non-jump) shots. Small shooting guards really need to play with a certain type of point guard to have their talents maximized (see Ellis, Monta), and the combination of Hinrich and Gordon is nearly always unsuccessful; Gordon even played much better with Duhon.
I'm not expecting Gordon to come to terms on an extension with the Bulls, and with bidding teams leery of seeing the Bulls match their contract offer, he will likely play for the $6.4 million qualifying offer in 08-09 and become an UFA a year from now. He wants ten-figures annually, and on talent he commands that, but he doesn't command it in Chicago due to how badly he fits with Hinrich. Paying ten-figures to a bench player is prohibitive unless you're RC Buford (although he's good enough to get Manu for nine-figures until 09-10).
- Joakim Noah: 140th, 533, 14.0, +127%
Like his days in Florida, Noah was involved in controversy, but he also exceeded individual expectations. Noah was 5th among rookies in season FIC and had the highest per 40 FIC of any player in the top-14, which also was the highest on Chicago's roster. I can't look at the 07 Draft and find a player selected 10th-60th that the Bulls would be better off owning especially after John Paxson jettisoned Ben Wallace to Cleveland.
- Andres Nocioni: 146th, 507, 10.1, -47%
Like Hinrich, Nocioni has a front-loaded contract, and his RV should improve in the coming seasons. His per 40 FIC dropped by 1.7 a season ago and was essentially right at the NBA median in terms of season production. He was decidedly better at playing the four beside Deng instead of filling in at the three when the Bulls tried to go big.
His shooting percentage dropped by 3.5 points as did his rebound rate by about the same.
- Larry Hughes: 173rd, 445, 8.9, -69%
The remaining $26.4 million Hughes has left on his contract can't come off the books fast enough for Chicago, but his size and versatility is actually of use to the club in the meantime. With Hinrich, Deng, Gooden, and Noah, Hughes made up Chicago's most effective five-man unit. There still aren't many 6-5 players who are as versatile as Hughes on both sides of the floor, but he is virtually certain to never average 22.0 (on 43% shooting), 6.2 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 2.9 steals ever again like he did in his 04-05 walk year. He had a per 40 FIC of 15.4 that season and had 9.6 and 8.6 seasons in 05-06 and 06-07 and a 11.2 season in 03-04, which is one of the most perfect walk year storms (also thinking Tim Thomas' playoff run in PHX) in NBA history.
- Tyrus Thomas: 174th, 440, 13.2, +4%
He doesn't seem like the kind of guy who responds well to being yanked around in an excessively structured environment, and now that Scott Skiles and his monocle are up in Milwaukee, I think we'll see the real Tyrus Thomas the Bulls drafted in 2006. When he is given substantial minutes, he performs exceptionally well, as evidenced by his terrific April when he averaged 12.7 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 1.56 blocks per in 28 minutes per game. Like Tyson Chandler, I'm not sure the current style and fellow personnel suit him, and I think we'd see that same kind of jump if he went to New Orleans or Golden State.
For me, the Aldridge trade only looks bad on the Bulls. Aldridge is a better fit personally and also stylistically for Chicago, but their per 40 FIC production was virtually identical (13.3 for Aldridge and 13.2 for Thomas).
- Thabo Sefolosha: 203th, 376, 10.5, +66%
Like Thomas, Sefolosha played much better in the second half when he began to see more regular playing time. His season shooting percentage remained the same in his sophomore season, but he shot 48.9% from the field after the All-Star break and 42% from 3-point territory. Time given to Hughes that could go to Sefolosha instead is really time wasted because the latter gives similar production, not to mention the obvious developmental bonus. As a rookie a season ago, Sefolosha had a per 40 FIC of 7.62, so 07-08 was a real step forward for Swiss native.
- Chris Duhon: 205th, 374, 10.2, -8%
In his walk year, Duhon did little to make the Bulls wish to bring him back in 08-09. The off the court issues are trivial and non-issues in most other places especially in Golden State and Denver, two teams that could use a point guard like Duhon. He still is not a very good shooter, but his assist/turnover ratio rose to 3.7, and his ability to penetrate and create scoring opportunities for teammates was a godsend for the Bulls. He is an ideal backup point guard, and he can even take over a game once in a while, as he did during a surprising Gordon, Deng and Hinrich-less win in Oakland in February.
- Aaron Gray: 282nd, 172, 11.4, +274%
You'd expect a four-year college player to be productive as a rookie, even one that was drafted in the second round, but Chicago has a nice find in Gray, who had a better per 40 FIC than Spencer Hawks (10.4). He's a happy to be here kind of guy who will make half of the shots he takes and rebounds at a decent rate.
- Viktor Khryapa: 401st, 23, 8.6, +0%
The Bulls waived Khrapa in February and came along with Thomas in the Aldridge swap. He wasn't happy in Chicago, and the Bulls had not use for him, so he took the first flight back to the U.S.S.R.
- Shannon Brown: 405th, 19, 3.1, -59%
Brown shot just 20% during his six games with Chicago, and as a free agent this summer, he will have to search for homes beyond the Windy City.
- Cedric Simmons: 427th, 8, 3.6, -92%
Simmons wasn't on the floor long enough to eat a donut and was hardly productive during that time. He was taken ahead of players like Rajon Rondo, Josh Boone, Jordan Farmar, Daniel Gibson, and Paul Millsap by the Hornets in the 2006 draft. He is fortunate to have his option for 08-09 already because he would otherwise be following fellow '06 alum Patrick O'Bryant to free agency/Europe.
- JamesOn Curry: 446th, 0, 0.0, -100%
Curry didn't see any action outside of the D-League and a non-issue incident in Boise.
- How The Bulls Were Acquired
- Curry, Deng, Duhon, Gordon, Gray, Hinrich, Noah, Sefolosha, and Thomas were acquired via the draft. The Bulls have more players on their roster acquired via the draft than any other club.
- Nocioni was an undrafted rookie signed with the MLE in 2005.
- Brown, Gooden, Hughes, Simmons were acquired via trade, and Nichols was claimed off waivers from Cleveland.
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of The Reina Value which determines the value of players in relation to their contract. |
